Monday, March 31, 2008

Donte Stallworth signing

Joe is nearing the end of his career, however Stallworth should add a 2nd deep threat to the offense. I think of his addition as comparable to Irvin and Harper in Dallas 10 years back. Certainly, Edwards is a step down from Irvin right now, but he has the same physical presence. The contract is a little longer than I expected, especially b/c you’re paying for Stallworth to retain his speed into his 30s (and very few receivers not named Joey Galloway can keep their top speed that long). Of all the moves this offseason, this is the one I disagreed with most, I think DJ Hackett would be a better fit (certainly considering the financial difference between the two contracts. Again, with money to spend, the Browns made a splash. However, if they had reserved some of it, it would leave more money for Edwards, and Winslow’s renegotiations, and potentially would have got us Darryl Blackstock. There will be a future column addressing OLB as well.

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Shaun Rogers Trade

Shaun Rodgers
I’m going to start this off saying that Bodden was my favorite player on the Browns. He’s relatively undersized, but tackles incredibly well. I’ll also admit he had a bad season last year, but he was hampered with injuries. Therefore, my initial reaction was iffy. However, this move makes sense for the following reasons:
A) Bodden wanted (and deserves) a bigger paycheck. The Browns weren’t going to pay it, so they got something for him now. Who knows, a year from now he could be a FA and the browns could take another run at him (not likely, but I have my hopes up)
B )Eric Wright is a top 20 CB. He’s a little soft in coverage, and a little undersized, but certainly a solid #1 CB
C) Between McDonald and Holly, one of them is a top 40 CB (at least) and the other is one of the top nickel backs in the league. Jury is still out on McDonald, but hopefully his incredible game against the Texans is a sign of things to come
D) We will either draft, trade or sign someone for some depth. The most likely scenario after the acquisition of Hadnot is trading Shaffer (more on that for a future column)
F) With Corey Williams and Rodgers, the DL will be more fresh, and able to apply more pressure than previous years (lightening the load on the CBs)
G) There’s still cap room to add a OLB that can apply pressure, or it can be addressed with a draft pick. Peak is a lot better than he gets credit for, and if he can play injury free, I think this will be a non issue. Depth is a concern b/c McGinnest is definitely regressed (more on his restructured contract in a later blog), and Chaun Thompson is now gone.Shaun Rodgers
I’m going to start this off saying that Bodden was my favorite player on the Browns. He’s relatively undersized, but tackles incredibly well. I’ll also admit he had a bad season last year, but he was hampered with injuries. Therefore, my initial reaction was iffy. However, this move makes sense for the following reasons:
A) Bodden wanted (and deserves) a bigger paycheck. The Browns weren’t going to pay it, so they got something for him now. Who knows, a year from now he could be a FA and the browns could take another run at him (not likely, but I have my hopes up)
B )Eric Wright is a top 20 CB. He’s a little soft in coverage, and a little undersized, but certainly a solid #1 CB
C) Between McDonald and Holly, one of them is a top 40 CB (at least) and the other is one of the top nickel backs in the league. Jury is still out on McDonald, but hopefully his incredible game against the Texans is a sign of things to come
D) We will either draft, trade or sign someone for some depth. The most likely scenario after the acquisition of Hadnot is trading Shaffer (more on that for a future column)
F) With Corey Williams and Rodgers, the DL will be more fresh, and able to apply more pressure than previous years (lightening the load on the CBs)
G) There’s still cap room to add a OLB that can apply pressure, or it can be addressed with a draft pick. Peak is a lot better than he gets credit for, and if he can play injury free, I think this will be a non issue. Depth is a concern b/c McGinnest is definitely regressed (more on his restructured contract in a later blog), and Chaun Thompson is now gone.

Monday, March 24, 2008

Corey Williams Trade

This is the first big move that the Browns made and I absolutely love it. In the 3-4 games I saw GB play last year, he was a factor in stopping the run. Furthermore, because we had the cap room, I think this trade makes sense. Also, at 28 years old, he’s coming into his prime at DT/DE, and while he’s significantly more expensive than a 2nd round pick would be, he’s also a lot more of a sure thing. Lastly, this isn’t a discarded vet that GB thought didn’t fit or couldn’t play anymore. They had depth at DT, and less cap room, so it seems like a perfect move.

Sunday, March 23, 2008

Cutting Orpheus Roye and Tim Carter

Cutting Orpheus Roye and Tim Carter
First a look at Roye. He’s 32, was having significantly more issues stopping the run last year than either of the Smiths. This was a pretty straightforward and easy decision for the browns. It did leave a whole open to fill, but one could argue that even with Roye there, the whole existed
Now Carter: 8 catches. He’s fast, but has a hard time catching the ball. I was disappointed with this trade when the Browns made it. They clearly needed more help at other positions (DL, OLB), and even a 4th or 5th round pick would have been better for two reasons. 1) Carter is terrible 2) Wilson would have been playing, and we wouldn’t have another year wondering what to do with him. Cutting him this year makes sense, and I’d be surprised if he gets picked up.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Resigning Jamal Lewis

Jamal Lewis
Football outsiders does a great job of assessing a players relative ability with DPAR and DVOA (see link). Further, their research shows that few backs “wear a defense down” (average yards per carry consistently goes up over the course of a game), and those that do, tend not to be the bulldozers, but rather smaller backs (Barry Sanders, Warrick Dunn). Further their research shows that these players tend not to appear on the list of best backs at wearing down defenses year after year. F O sites Lewis as slightly better than average as a running back.
With that argument put aside, we look at Jamal Lewis from a couple of other sides:
Is he a bad weather back: FO hasn’t done research on this yet, but watching the games at the end of last year, it seems like he does fit this role.
Ability to finish a run: Again, no FO stats on this (yards after first contact?), but from a qualitative perspective, Lewis looks better than most.
Pass receiving and blocking: I haven’t focused on this, but Lewis appears to be average in the passing game. Wright comes in on passing downs, and apparently Jerome Harrison still hasn’t learned how to pick up a blitz.
Game breaking ability: Relatively little. The week 2 game against Cincy showed that he has some speed, but not like he used to (the 275 yard game against Cleveland)
Longevity/Durability: Lewis is 29, meaning the magic (or non magic #30) isn’t far away and that’s not a good thing for RBs (see Alexander, James, George). Realistically, the Browns should be hoping for 2 good seasons out of him, and at least get 1.
FA options: This was an interesting one. Again, with money not as an object, there are certainly legitimate RBs on the FA market.
Turner – I’m glad we stayed away. Marshall Faulk had a great comment about teams “resting” when the starting RB goes out. That could certainly explain not only Turner’s success, but also Lamont Jordan’s as a Jet (subbing for Curtis Martin), Kevan Barlow (replacing Garrison Hearst). Whether or not Turner will be great (Priest Holmes) is still up in the air. But I think he’s more of a boom or bust back.
Julius Jones – Not sure if the Browns knew he’d be available. But he’s younger and provides a little more game breaking ability. If he came cheaper, then it would be a great fit.
Final thought: Again, probably the right move for the Browns. Keeping a known commodity is always safer than going after an unknown. Savage realized that Lewis is a good enough player to provide a legitimate threat to run, and much more than then that isn’t really needed with the passing offense as strong as it is.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Derek Anderson signing

Review of the Anderson signing today, and Lewis tomorrow.

This is a tough call for the Browns as both players had great years, which very well could have been flukes. To evaluate the moves, will look at the players more closely first. Further will start with Derek Anderson
Anderson: Seems to read, and react to blitzes very well. Although, a lot of this could come from his receiver’s ability to beat their defenders in 1 on 1 matchups. Obviously, Braylon, Kellen, and Joe present size mismatches. Reading soft zones has typically given Anderson more problems (see pro-bowl and 2nd Cincy game). This is concerning for two reasons:
1) Due to the Browns significantly improved OL, they’ll likely see less blitzes
2) Teams have recognized this, and as such will fall back into zones more often.
Hopefully these two instances are flukes, and fortunately, QBs can get better at reading defenses. Anderson has played 1.5 seasons, so this year will be a great test to see how he’s progressed. If by week 8, he’s not playing well, Quinn could step in.
The contract. The Browns were really in 2 no-lose situations. Most likely, they couldn’t have gotten more than a late first or a package of 2nd and 3rd for Anderson from another team (the restricted FA price tag at 1 and 3 wouldn’t be met by any team). As such, Savage probably looked at the potential to improve his team, his cap situation and went through this thought process:
1) Cap room à we have a lot, therefore, this shouldn’t be a barrier to signing players
2) Available back-up QBs on the market
a. Quinn played well in limited action last year, but a veteran back-up QB would need to be signed that also is accustomed to or ok with playing a backup role (Leftwich is probably the best fit)
3) What could he get in the draft that fit the Browns needs. Prior to the Browns making the FA moves the browns needs were pretty straightforward:
a. Get younger and better at DE, NT
b. Get a OLB that can blitz
c. Get a 2nd or 3rd WR that can step in for Joe next year
The draft has two legit DTs, Ellis and Dorsey, neither of which have played in a 3-4 system (and their skill sets aren’t maximized by playing in it either). The draft has one top pass rusher that can stand up or put his hand down (Gholston). Long seems like a 3-4 OLB, but he rarely played off the ball at Virginia. I’m not questioning his ability to do it, but you’re adding another variable to the draft process. Thus, to make sure he addressed these needs he’d have to get an early #1 pick, and spend a lot of money on an unknown quantity. Recent draft history (Courtney Brown, Gerard Warren, William Joseph) has shown that this is a pretty easy thing to miss on.
Savage did the right thing. Leftwhich is a known average starter with a slow release. Anderson’s upside is significantly higher, and his contract demands didn’t put him out of the Browns price range

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Evaluation of 2007 Draft

Joe Thomas - absolute stud. Perfect pick for the Browns as he not only filled the need, but seems to be one of the best in his position. He locked down just about every DE he faced, and to my knowledge, only gave up two sacks.

Brady Quinn - love the pick even though we may have given up too much to get him (would have liked to get a 4th or 5th round in return from Dallas. Regardless, he looked great in his one regular season appearance, and would have had a TD if Winslow didn't drop it

Eric Wright - Again, a huge success. More or less started every game this season, and played really well against #2 receivers. His biggest test will come this year as he's asked to lock down #1s.

Brandon McDonald - Seems to be a 4th hit in the draft. Played exceptionally well against Andre Johnson (albiet his first game back from an injury) but a lot more will be expected this year as he's asked to at least play nickel, and possibly start ahead of Holly against #2 WRs.

Purcell/Pittman - both were on the developmental squad. It would be a huge success if one or both could make the team and provide depth at DE by becoming part of the rotation. Anything more than that is a lot to expect from 6th and 7th round picks

Syndric Steptoe - Cribbs emergence as the top return man hurts a lot of Steptoes value. If he makes the team, it would be in place of Travis Wilson, finally putting the official "bust" tag on the pick

Overall. A near flawless draft. A franchise LT, QB and potentially two starting CBs. It simply doesn't get much better than that.