2007 NFL Mock Draft

The below mock draft predicts tomorrows draft:
1) Raiders - JeMarcus Russel
They need a QB, and Davis is too arrogant to do the right thing (Draft Johnson in round 1 and a QB round 2 or 3)
2) Lions - Calcin Johnson
Too big of a talent to pass up
3) Joe Thomas. LT is a need .
4) Buccaneers - Gaines Adams
The 2nd best player on their board
5) Arizona - Amobi Okoye
The player they want, Joe Thomas, is gone. Levi is a possibility here as well
6) Washington - Leron Landry
It makes too much sense to go anywhere else
7) Vikings - Adrian Peterson
Kind of a shocker here, but a great player much lower than he should actually be drafted. They won't take Quinn b/c of Tavaris Jackson
8) Falcons:
Ted Ginn. They need a weapon at WR and he's a dangerous one
9) Miami Dolphins - Levi Brown
Bad OL gets better with this pick.

The draft ranking the options previously mentioned

I outlined 4 scenarios in my last post based on who the Cleveland Browns should pick with their first choice in the draft on Saturday:
Peterson
Quinn
Thomas
Johnson (or trading the pick)

If I'm the Cleveland Browns, I'm praying to the football gods that for some reason both Detroit and Oakland pass on CJ in the draft. You know anytime wanting to draft Johnson knows that TB will take him at #4. In this scenario, the Browns absolutely need to trade down and get extra picks so. If the Browns stay in the top 11, they'll get one of the following players that still fit their needs:
1) Quinn
2) Peterson
3) Levi Brown
4) Okoye
5) Carriker
6) Branch
7) Leon Hall (I think he's overrated)

If CJ isn't there, and Thomas is, the Browns should run, not walk to the podium to take a franchise LT.

If both CJ and Thomas are gone, I think Quinn is a better QB than Russel (I take production over potential), and take the ND qb (as much as I hate ND and Quinn).

Taking Peterson, while probably a top tier RB, isn't the best optioon for the Browns. They can get a RB in the 3rd round that can split time with Lewis this year and Harrison down the road. Tony Hunt, Michael Bush, Antonio Pittman, Chris Henry etc. There are just too many options to get a RB later in the draft and fill the Browns need

The Browns Draft Options

The Cleveland Browns are in a pivotal situation this year where they can really take a significant step forward based on how they draft. Rather than project what they should do with the entire draft, I outlined some likely scenarios based on their first pick. It's very important to note that without getting additional picks the team won't fill all of its holes.

First, I highly recommend this article from Football Outsiders (draft value by position):http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/04/19/ramblings/nfl-draft/5088


Scenario #1 Brady Quinn is available for the Browns
Round 2:

1) Justin Harrell or Turk McBride- DT - If either are still there (probably unlikely) they fit the planet theory and the Browns should draft one of them. If not, there are 3-4 DT/DE that should be available later on

2) Best Guard/Tackle available - Grubbs/Blaylock. While this seems to disagree with the FO article (especially after signing steinbach) this pick can be viewed as drafting a LT if you assume that they move steinbach there if they draft a Guard)

Round 3:
If they got their DT, the Browns should address OL here. If they ended up with an OL, the browns should go in another direction (draft value dictates addressing the DL later), and go after a CB here. A running back may also make sense

Round 4:
Regardless of what happens in either scenario, drafting a RB or CB in round 4 makes sense. Even though it's a huge need one of these options leave the Browns without addressing the DL until Round 5.

Scenario #2: Draft Joe Thomas
Round 2:
Again, if the DT are there draft one of them. If not, it presents a situation where the browns can trade down and get some more holes filled. If they don't trade down, and the DTs are gone, the value dictates that the Browns should draft a CB. If they do trade down. Look to Denver to swap for a DE or OT they like here (trading picks 56 and 70)

Round 3: Regardless of what the browns do in round 2 in this scenario they should draft a QB here, any later and it's a shot in the dark and you've wasted a pick on someone who's very unlikely to pan out. (please don't respond with a Tom Brady or Matt Hasselback argument, they're exceptions to the rule. Plain and simple, you're significantly more likely to get a starter at another position in rounds 4, 5, or 6 than if you draft a QB.)


Round 4: This is where the browns should address CB (if they didn't already) or RB. in both of these positions, there's a high likelihood of getting a starter.

Again this scenario leaves DL, the browns second biggest need, unaddressed until later on.

Scenario #3 Draft Adrian Peterson

Round 2: Similar to scenario 1
Round 3: Draft a QB
Round 4: Draft OL or CB

I think this is the worst option for the Cleveland Browns as it addresses a low need. They need to view the opportunity cost of not drafting Quinn or Thomas.

Scenario #4 Calvin Johnson is available
Option 1: Trade the pick. Someone needs CJ more than we do right now. Sliding down a couple spots (any of the teams sitting at 7, 8 or 9) should get you:
From ATL: #2 and early #4 (they have 2 #2s, and 3 #4s)
From MIN: #2 and #2 next year or #3 for our #4
From MIA: #2 and #2 nex year or and #3 for our #4 0 maybe a 5 gets thrown in here.

Any of these scenarios allow us to draft Quinn, Levi Brown or AD, in addition to getting an additional pick in round #2.

I think the Falcons are the most likely scenario as CJ played in Atl., and they finally give Vick the WR he needs. They're currently looking at the draft with Landry or Jamaal Anderson as their #1, WR and DE in the 2nd round (fulfilling all of their needs). If they make the trade, the Falcons could address their biggest need S in round 2, and DE in round #3. They'd probably hit the DL and OL with the remaining #4 picks. Regardless, of whether or not the falcons make the trade, they're going to have an excellent draft.

Miami's the second most likely scenario. as they could address their other two needs OL and DL in rounds 2 and 3. They're probably looking at their draft as Levi #1, and WR/DL in round 2.

Minnesota is the least likely, because they don't have an extra #2. However, they have the fewest needs of the three teams, and WR wouldn't make sense at #7 if they stay there. Jamaal Anderson is a possibility, but the Vikings already have 2 #1s on the team playing DE. Patrick Willis is the other option.

If one of these trades occurs the Browns can address every need position in the first 4 rounds (potentially on the first day)
R1: Quinn R2: DL/OL R2: OL/CB R3: CB/RB R3/4: RB/DL R4: OL or WR
R1: Brown R2: DL/CB R2: CB/QB or DL R3: QB/CB R3/4: RB/DL R4: WR or OL
R1: Peterson R2: DL/OL R2: OL/QB R3: QB/CB R3/4: CB/DL R4: OL or WR

If they take Johnson, look for them to go OL in round 2, QB in 3, CB/RB in 4 and RB/CB or DL in round 5.

Cleveland Browns - Draft needs

Here's a recap of where the Browns stand by position and how they should view the draft


1) Best OL available.
The signing of Steinbach helps, however a true LT would make the line much better. It would allow Shafer to move to ROT, and make ROG a serious battle (Tucker - moving from ROT, Mckinnley and and Andruzzi). In addition, it would create a deep and talented bench (Friedman, Tucker, Andruzzi, Sowells). If LT can't be addressed (e.g. the Browns don't get Thomas at #3 or trade down for Levi), adding a G or even a C helps. Bringing in a guard potentially allows Steinbach to move to LT (less than desirable, but still an improvement - below scenarios assumes Shafer stays at LT in '07), and a C essentially does the same thing (requiring Fraley to move to G). If you take into consideration LeCharles returning at full strength next year, you could be looking at one of the top lines in the league in '08

Scenario 1: Draft Tackle '07 Line-up

LT - Thomas
LG - Steinbach
C - Fraley (Friedman)
RG - McKinnley (Sowells/Andruzzi)
RT - Shafer (Tucker)

Scenario 2: Draft Tackle '08 Line-up

LT - Thomas
LG - Steinbach
C - Bentley (Friedman/Fraley)
RG - McKinnley (Sowells/Fraley)
RT - Shafer (Tucker)

Scenario 3: Draft Guard/C '07 Line-up

LT - Shafer
LG - Steinbach
C - Fraley/Kalil (Friedman)
RG - Grubbs/Fraley (Sowells)
RT - McKinnley (Tucker)

Scenario 4: Draft Guard/C '08 Line-up

LT - Steinbach
LG - Fraley
C - Bentley/Kalil (Friedman)
RG - Grubbs Bently (Sowells)
RT - Shafer (McKinnley)

2) Best 3-4 DL avaialble.

Again, Savage did a great job improving this in the off-season by adding Shaun and Robaire Smith. However, more work needs to be done. In essence this is where the team stands:

DE: Orpheus Roye, Robaire Smith Simon Frasier, Orien Harris
NT: Ted Washington, S. Smith, Oshinwino

As much bad press as people like to attribute to Ted Washington being a bust, it was the DE that were getting run over last year. Big Ted is still an above average run-stopper (and a significant step up from Jason Fisk, who might as well have played S because of how far back he got pushed in 05), however, b/c of lack of depth, was on the field way too often in 2006 on 3rd downs. Frasier, while a good pass rusher, simply wasn't strong enough to hold his ground against the run. Roye had a down year as did Alvin Mckinney (not on team any more). It's important to note that a great 3-4 defense is built around lineman that are specialized, except for one player that plays every down. Lastly, on obvious pass situations, the best rushing OLB (Think McGinnest 4 years ago) puts his hand down. Here's the ideal breakout for DL depth:

2 Nose tackles: The primary needs is at least an above average run stopper (Ted), the backup should be able to hold his own now, and develop into a number 1 (S. Smith). Neither player is typically on the field in passing situations ( the number 2 NT is interchangeable with the 2nd DE) . The 2 NT also (depending on talent) comes in on the run/pass downs (2nd 6, 3rd and 2 etc.)

Browns assessment: The Browns are actually OK, but not great here. First the bad, as stated before, Washington was above average last year, but you can expect him to get worse every year just based on his age. Smith is a perfect 3-4 lineman. He's versatile enough to be the #1 NT or the #2 end and even stay at this position.

4 DE: One starter is an all pro that is an above average run stopping DE who applies good pressure when moved to the nose on 3rd and long (see Richard Seymor). This player lines up on the weakside. (this is what Roye is supposed to be) The other starter is a run stopper. He comes off the field on 3rd down (R. Smith is supposed to be this). The 3rd DE is a pass rush first guy who can play against the run well, but is more of a pass rusher (Frasier fits this mold). The 4th DE is basically a utility guy, and needs to be big enough to play on the strong side and is a project (Harris, Oshwino)

Browns assesment: Roye is average and is on his way down in his career. Smith should be average at his role. (better than Alvin last year) Frasier fits well in his role (played way too much on early downs last year) . The browns are hoping Orien or Oshinwo to develop.


Running Downs

NT - Washington
DE (strong side) - R. Smith
DE (weakside) O. Roye

Middle Downs:
NT: S. Smith (Washington)
DE (strong side) R. Smith (S. Smith)
DE (Weakside): Roye (R. Smith)

Passing Downs:
NT: Roye/S. Smith
DE (strong side): Frasier
DE (weakside): Wimbley/McGinnest/Peak. My guess is that this guy will be Wimbley this year, and McGinnest and Peak playing OLB. However, I could see McGinnest putting his hand down as well (likely replacing Frasier for just this year). Peak was brought in to be McGinnest replacement next year. More about this later, but the Browns have a great linebacking core

There are two guys who could fit the Browns biggest need: the #1 DE (Jamaal Anderson and Adam Carriker) . Adding these guys gives Roye some time off the field, and obviously improves depth.

Drafting a nose tackle like Alan Branch (to eventually replace Washington) would allows S. Smith to move to the 2 DE. My guess is that without trading down, none of these guys are an option.

I'd look to round 2 and hope that Justin Harrell from Tennessee, Demarcus Tyler are available. Either could play the 2nd DE or Nose Tackle. the DE from Hawaii could be available as well, and is more of a reach as the #1 DE (potentially falling to 2nd DE)

3) CB - Bodden deosn't get the credit he deserves as a lockdown corner. He played hurt last year, but should be back to full strength this year. Holly is an above average nickel or average 2nd CB. While this sounds good, there's not a decent CB behind the two starters. Which means if either player gets hurt, you're basically playing a bad nickel at #2. Therefore, assuming Baxter's hurt (which is what the Browns should assume) if you draft a CB in round 2 or 3, you'll get at worst another starter at nickel (ahead of Wright). Best case scenario is that he's a solid #2 and if Baxter comes back you're 4 deep at CB. This allows a lot of flexibility which is needed


A lot has been made about the next two positions, but I firmly believe a strong OL helps improve these two positions greatly.

4) QB - From the how Frye and Anderson played last year, the Browns don't seem to have an answer at QB. However, when your QB is spending most of the time on his back, Winslow playing at 75% more or less all year, and no running game to speak of, neither really got a chance to prove who they are as a QB. Dorsey isn't a factor. If the Browns believe that Quinn or Russel is a franchise QB (better than what may be available next year) then they should take them. I don't believe that either player is flawless and give Frye and Anderson another year to see if they can play at this level

5) RB - I think Jamal Lewis will be an average RB, and a step up from Droughns. A lot has been made of his decline, but I think it's more of a symptom of his time in Jail 2 years ago as opposed to diminishing skills Wright is underated and could actually be a decent #2 running back. The x factor this year will be wether or not Harrison learns how to pass protect. Again, addressing this position before any others I think is a mistake unless you decide that AD's injuries aren't a long term concern (I disagree with this).

6) Wide Receiver - It's a make or break year for Braylon. If he doesn't succeed, look for the browns to address this position next year in free agency or the draft. Jurevicious is a good #2, but is getting older. The hope is that Wilson can develop into a #2 (but is the #4 this year) and Carter is your #3.

That covers where the Browns should draft. I don't see a reason to address the below three positions unless a great value drops in your lap

7) Safety - two young players, both of whom are good. Another depth pick here isn't a bad idea, but I'd rather see another OL or DL get drafted.

8) LB - Probably the Browns deepest position. Between Peak, McGinnist and Wimbley, they're set for this year at OLB. Stewart is a great back-up, and McMillin is your project. On the inside, the Browns are young, talented and deep. D'Qwell and Andra Davs are good starters. Leon Williams impressed against the run in limited action, and should continue to develop. Thompson is a good for depth and an above average rusher.

9) TE - Between Winslow and Heiden, the Browns don't need to adress this position