The Browns Draft Options

The Cleveland Browns are in a pivotal situation this year where they can really take a significant step forward based on how they draft. Rather than project what they should do with the entire draft, I outlined some likely scenarios based on their first pick. It's very important to note that without getting additional picks the team won't fill all of its holes.

First, I highly recommend this article from Football Outsiders (draft value by position):http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/04/19/ramblings/nfl-draft/5088


Scenario #1 Brady Quinn is available for the Browns
Round 2:

1) Justin Harrell or Turk McBride- DT - If either are still there (probably unlikely) they fit the planet theory and the Browns should draft one of them. If not, there are 3-4 DT/DE that should be available later on

2) Best Guard/Tackle available - Grubbs/Blaylock. While this seems to disagree with the FO article (especially after signing steinbach) this pick can be viewed as drafting a LT if you assume that they move steinbach there if they draft a Guard)

Round 3:
If they got their DT, the Browns should address OL here. If they ended up with an OL, the browns should go in another direction (draft value dictates addressing the DL later), and go after a CB here. A running back may also make sense

Round 4:
Regardless of what happens in either scenario, drafting a RB or CB in round 4 makes sense. Even though it's a huge need one of these options leave the Browns without addressing the DL until Round 5.

Scenario #2: Draft Joe Thomas
Round 2:
Again, if the DT are there draft one of them. If not, it presents a situation where the browns can trade down and get some more holes filled. If they don't trade down, and the DTs are gone, the value dictates that the Browns should draft a CB. If they do trade down. Look to Denver to swap for a DE or OT they like here (trading picks 56 and 70)

Round 3: Regardless of what the browns do in round 2 in this scenario they should draft a QB here, any later and it's a shot in the dark and you've wasted a pick on someone who's very unlikely to pan out. (please don't respond with a Tom Brady or Matt Hasselback argument, they're exceptions to the rule. Plain and simple, you're significantly more likely to get a starter at another position in rounds 4, 5, or 6 than if you draft a QB.)


Round 4: This is where the browns should address CB (if they didn't already) or RB. in both of these positions, there's a high likelihood of getting a starter.

Again this scenario leaves DL, the browns second biggest need, unaddressed until later on.

Scenario #3 Draft Adrian Peterson

Round 2: Similar to scenario 1
Round 3: Draft a QB
Round 4: Draft OL or CB

I think this is the worst option for the Cleveland Browns as it addresses a low need. They need to view the opportunity cost of not drafting Quinn or Thomas.

Scenario #4 Calvin Johnson is available
Option 1: Trade the pick. Someone needs CJ more than we do right now. Sliding down a couple spots (any of the teams sitting at 7, 8 or 9) should get you:
From ATL: #2 and early #4 (they have 2 #2s, and 3 #4s)
From MIN: #2 and #2 next year or #3 for our #4
From MIA: #2 and #2 nex year or and #3 for our #4 0 maybe a 5 gets thrown in here.

Any of these scenarios allow us to draft Quinn, Levi Brown or AD, in addition to getting an additional pick in round #2.

I think the Falcons are the most likely scenario as CJ played in Atl., and they finally give Vick the WR he needs. They're currently looking at the draft with Landry or Jamaal Anderson as their #1, WR and DE in the 2nd round (fulfilling all of their needs). If they make the trade, the Falcons could address their biggest need S in round 2, and DE in round #3. They'd probably hit the DL and OL with the remaining #4 picks. Regardless, of whether or not the falcons make the trade, they're going to have an excellent draft.

Miami's the second most likely scenario. as they could address their other two needs OL and DL in rounds 2 and 3. They're probably looking at their draft as Levi #1, and WR/DL in round 2.

Minnesota is the least likely, because they don't have an extra #2. However, they have the fewest needs of the three teams, and WR wouldn't make sense at #7 if they stay there. Jamaal Anderson is a possibility, but the Vikings already have 2 #1s on the team playing DE. Patrick Willis is the other option.

If one of these trades occurs the Browns can address every need position in the first 4 rounds (potentially on the first day)
R1: Quinn R2: DL/OL R2: OL/CB R3: CB/RB R3/4: RB/DL R4: OL or WR
R1: Brown R2: DL/CB R2: CB/QB or DL R3: QB/CB R3/4: RB/DL R4: WR or OL
R1: Peterson R2: DL/OL R2: OL/QB R3: QB/CB R3/4: CB/DL R4: OL or WR

If they take Johnson, look for them to go OL in round 2, QB in 3, CB/RB in 4 and RB/CB or DL in round 5.