Thursday, March 20, 2008

Resigning Jamal Lewis

Jamal Lewis
Football outsiders does a great job of assessing a players relative ability with DPAR and DVOA (see link). Further, their research shows that few backs “wear a defense down” (average yards per carry consistently goes up over the course of a game), and those that do, tend not to be the bulldozers, but rather smaller backs (Barry Sanders, Warrick Dunn). Further their research shows that these players tend not to appear on the list of best backs at wearing down defenses year after year. F O sites Lewis as slightly better than average as a running back.
With that argument put aside, we look at Jamal Lewis from a couple of other sides:
Is he a bad weather back: FO hasn’t done research on this yet, but watching the games at the end of last year, it seems like he does fit this role.
Ability to finish a run: Again, no FO stats on this (yards after first contact?), but from a qualitative perspective, Lewis looks better than most.
Pass receiving and blocking: I haven’t focused on this, but Lewis appears to be average in the passing game. Wright comes in on passing downs, and apparently Jerome Harrison still hasn’t learned how to pick up a blitz.
Game breaking ability: Relatively little. The week 2 game against Cincy showed that he has some speed, but not like he used to (the 275 yard game against Cleveland)
Longevity/Durability: Lewis is 29, meaning the magic (or non magic #30) isn’t far away and that’s not a good thing for RBs (see Alexander, James, George). Realistically, the Browns should be hoping for 2 good seasons out of him, and at least get 1.
FA options: This was an interesting one. Again, with money not as an object, there are certainly legitimate RBs on the FA market.
Turner – I’m glad we stayed away. Marshall Faulk had a great comment about teams “resting” when the starting RB goes out. That could certainly explain not only Turner’s success, but also Lamont Jordan’s as a Jet (subbing for Curtis Martin), Kevan Barlow (replacing Garrison Hearst). Whether or not Turner will be great (Priest Holmes) is still up in the air. But I think he’s more of a boom or bust back.
Julius Jones – Not sure if the Browns knew he’d be available. But he’s younger and provides a little more game breaking ability. If he came cheaper, then it would be a great fit.
Final thought: Again, probably the right move for the Browns. Keeping a known commodity is always safer than going after an unknown. Savage realized that Lewis is a good enough player to provide a legitimate threat to run, and much more than then that isn’t really needed with the passing offense as strong as it is.

No comments: